Next Time On… Survivor is a little blog I’m doing here on Inside Survivor, predicting the events of the next episode based on hints from the previous one as well as the preview trailers and commercials.
100-percent spoiler free speculation! Let’s do it!
Part 1: Previously On… Survivor
That was totally wicked!
1. Tai will not vote with Jason and Scot at the next Tribal, nor will he give either of them the super idol when they need it.
Grade: And it was glorious. I’ll take that A for the fanfiction come true.
2. Julia and Tai will abandon ship and begin working with Michele, Aubry, Cydney and Joe.
Grade: Julia continues to baffle me. I know she wants to be with people she can beat at the end of the game, but first, she has to get to the end of the game. I guess we’ll see where her alliance with Jason gets her. Tai definitely jumped ship, though. I’ll give myself a C+.
3. Jason will be voted out.
Grade: Normally I would give myself an F for getting the boot wrong, but my entire blog last week essentially said that either Scot or Jason would be voted out. I was wrong, but only at the end. I’m going to give myself a B.
Part 2: I just want revenge right now
When Nick was voted out, there was a debate about the practicality of “psychological warfare,” a.k.a., pouring water over the fire and stealing your camp’s tools. Was there an actual strategy there? Did it sincerely play a part in Debbie’s downfall? Or was it just a couple of sore losers throwing a temper tantrum?
Initially, I tore into Jason and Scot for not only sabotaging their tribe but for destroying their own games. I did this because when I watch this show, my expectation is for people to play to win in whatever way works best for them. If you are lucky enough to participate in such an awesome game and experience, you should go all out. I do not see the point in trashing your own game.
That all said, guess what these goats have in common with the only two-time winner of Survivor? Sandra dumped out a big bucket of fish after Rupert’s blindside because she was angry with the tribe for their decision. The difference? She got away with it. She did not stand up in front of the tribe and douse the campfire with the water supply. If you want to cause some paranoia in the tribe – unnerve everybody – you can do that. In some cases, a little chaos might help you slide through; this is not the case when everyone else knows who is messing with the tribe. It’s the same kind of disastrous results you can expect when you name yourself something silly like Chaos Kass. You can’t escape your own whirlwind.
Early in the preview for the next episode, we have a Jason confessional where he exclaims; “I just want revenge right now!” That’s understandable, Jason. After all, you lost your closest ally, and he took your hidden immunity idol with him. That said, the “revenge” mindset will get you nowhere.
Jason’s “plan” for Tai likely just involves killing Mark the chicken and upsetting Tai because Jason has no strategic way out of his situation. Unlike dumping a bucket of fish in the middle of the night, killing a chicken and eating it is not exactly subtle. Julia may want to get to the final tribal council with him, understandably, but that isn’t enough to save Jason’s game.
All of this said I don’t think Jason is going home this week. In fact, I think Julia might just save his ass. I just want to make it clear that the “psychological warfare” has not played a part in any of his future successes or any progress he makes in the game.
Part 3: How Julia can save Jason’s ass
In the commercial spot, we see clips of Julia talking to Michele and Cydney, likely about their need to vote out Tai before he uses his idol or mysterious advantage. Julia has been on everyone’s radar these past few episodes due to her “double-agent” game-play, but it has not caused any major issues. When the majority wanted to take out Debbie, they did. When they wanted to take out Scot, they did.
Since Julia is yet to screw up their plans completely, I do not see why players like Aubry and Cydney would not at least hear her ideas out. And honestly, if Julia tells everyone that she wants to target Tai, they will probably listen. Hell, everyone is probably thinking the same thing. He has a lot of power and has been shown to flip between alliances, so trying to take him out would not be a bad idea by any means.
I do not believe Tai is going home either, though. I read the description for this week’s episode, and I want to share it with you now:
“One castaway holds the key to individual immunity and guarantees themselves a shot at the final six. Also, after a shocking tribal council, a fractured alliance may not be able to be restored.”
Emphasis on the “fractured alliance,” and “shocking tribal,” bits of that by the way.
Here’s the theory: Julia convinces Aubry, Cydney, Joe and Michele to split votes between Tai and Jason, including herself as a vote for Tai and getting Tai as a vote for Jason. But behind the scenes, Julia will approach Michele and get her to vote with her and Jason against Cydney. As long as the others expect Michele to vote for Jason, the numbers would land as follows: Tai: 2, Jason: 2, Cydney: 3. I also believe Tai will play his idol after feeling the inevitable tension of a fragile split vote around camp. No, I don’t think he will use the extra vote.
Why Cydney? I think in Jason’s eyes, she is the reason he and Scot were ever in the predicament they found themselves in. I think in Julia’s eyes, she is the hardest person to beat at a Final Tribal Council.
I say it at the top of the blog every week, but I will say it again: this is all speculation with a little bit of fan fiction thrown in there. We are getting to the point in the season where one person’s movement between alliances is enough to throw everything out of whack. The numbers are sensitive, so I’m predicting an outcome where their sensitivity comes into play that also incorporates what we can see and read about this week’s episode from the preview materials. NO SPOILERS.
Part 4: Wrap-up
Prayers for Mark, everybody.
1. Tai will use his idol at Tribal Council despite not having the highest number of votes.
2. Julia, Jason, and Michele will vote together and their target, I believe it will be Cydney, will be voted out.
3. Why not? I think there will be a clue to a re-hidden immunity idol at the picnic reward hinted at in the press photos. (By the way, seeing two helicopters in those pictures gave me a panic attack initially.)
Current winner pick: Staying on the Michele train for now.