Welcome to Season 48’s Next Time On Survivor weekly feature on the Inside Survivor site! If you’re new around here, I’m Steph from sunny, tropical, humid Singapore. This is a tiny space where I give my best attempts at understanding preview trailers and make my predictions for the show’s next episodes.
This week’s trailers mainly focus on the upcoming swap, which will split the remaining 15 players into even groups of five. After three back-to-back eliminations from the green Vula tribe, this will be pretty exciting as we’ll see new relationships form and potentially new players scramble before tribal council for the first time.
Looking closely at the promo trailer, a quick shot of the challenge reveals most of the new swapped tribes. In the shot’s foreground, we can tell that the first tribe consists of David, Charity, Star, Eva, and Mary. At first glance, it would seem that Mary would once again be at the bottom of this new tribe, being the only player formerly from Vula.
However, I actually think Mary’s in a great position to change up her game here. She’s in the middle of the tribe, with two players from Lagi—Eva and Star—and two players from Civa—David and Charity. Seeing how she managed to squirm her way through the last three episodes, I don’t think she’ll just readily accept that she’s in the minority and the easy vote again. Instead, I think she’ll be able to position herself as that crucial third vote to join either the Civa or Lagi pairs to form the majority.
Furthermore, it would be hasty to assume that the pairs will even work together to begin with, just because they were from the same starting tribe. In Episode 3, Star revealed she didn’t want to work with Eva, hoping to target her first. I think this impression will continue in Episode 4, and I predict we may even see Star sharing her beware advantage cipher with others in hopes of building new connections.
The next swapped tribe we can identify from the trailer consists of Kyle, Thomas, Joe, Shauhin, and Kamilla. With this lineup, I think the dynamics will be more predictable. From previous episodes, the California Girls alliance comprising Joe, Thomas, and Shauhin, have been highlighted more than a few times, even though the Lagi tribe didn’t have to go to tribal council. This leads me to believe we’ll see these three guys making it far together.
Now, with the majority numbers, I can see this alliance picking off Kamilla and Kyle if the tribe loses the immunity challenge. What’s difficult for them and interesting for us will then be how they navigate the two advantages that former Civa players have. Kamilla has an extra vote, and Kyle has a hidden immunity idol. My prediction is that the California Girls alliance will take control of the tribe, voting Kamilla out first to keep the tribe more physically strong for challenges.
Finally, by elimination, we can piece together the third tribe, which will consist of Sai, Cedrek, Bianca, Chrissy, and Mitch. Bianca finds herself in a similar position to Mary, being the only person from her previous tribe in between two players from former Vula—Cedrek and Sai—and two players from former Civa—Chrissy and Mitch. However, I think she’s not going to be in as favourable a spot as Mary, as she lost her vote in the last episode when she went on the journey.
Without a vote, I think she’ll be in a very vulnerable position to make new relationships with players she hasn’t met prior. Moreover, Cedrek and Sai would likely vote together after what they went through in the last tribal council. Similarly, I predict it’s also likely that Mitch and Chrissy continue working together, not wanting to be the first on the former Civa tribe to vote out one of their own Civa players. As such, I believe Bianca’s going home as the unfortunate victim of the swap if this tribe goes to tribal council.
What do you think happens in Episode 4? Leave your predictions in the comments below!
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I watched the next time on survivor clip on .25 speed and didn’t see a challenge (when was it?) but I trust you. With that said I agree that Mary would be safe on her new tribe. Because I think Star will try to throw Eva under the bus fast and Eva will catch wind of it and probably tell them Star doesn’t have a vote or an idol and one of them would leave (I don’t think they will go to tribal though, they have strength with David and Eva and puzzles with Mary.
The second tribe is the most interesting cause of the 3-2 split and the 2 having an idol and an advantage so I think that one of the 3 would be in more danger. But I also don’t think they will go to tribal cause they have strength and puzzle.
The tribe that I think will be going is the 3rd tribe and I agree that Bianca is in trouble but the others don’t know she hà no vote, if she can get both sides to vote for each other and not her they would tie and I don’t think Sai or Cedrek would risk rocks so would turn on each other at a revote.