Next Time On… Survivor is a blog here on Inside Survivor all about previews and predictions!
This blog is usually 100% spoiler free speculation! For part three and four of this week’s post, I am referencing some information that was available to the public during the preseason. This is not a boot spoiler or any inside secret information; it’s even available on the Survivor Wiki. Still, if you are sensitive towards spoilers about twists in the format of the game, only read through part two this week. Thank you!
Part One: Previously On Survivor…
Before we get into next time, let’s take a look at how I did last time.
1. There is no chance in Fiji that Vanua catches that goat.
Grade: A! Not only did they not catch that goat, but they apparently gave Adam ample time to find an idol in a clam shell!
2. Takali wins reward but loses immunity.
Grade: A! Zeke said it best himself during the episode, those Gen X guys are huge (well, most of them). That reward challenge was built for them.
3. Lucy is voted out.
Grade: I would absolutely love to give myself an A here and declare myself the master of episode four, but I just can’t do it. This did not go down the way I was expecting. Here’s an excerpt from last week’s blog:
“Ken, David, and CeCe will reach across the aisle to Chris and Bret, who are now in the minority. The conversation will go like something along the lines of: “Look, we thought Paul was bad, but no one could have seen Lucy coming. I mean really, we didn’t even know she was here.” Ken, David, CeCe, Chris and Bret will vote for Lucy, blindsiding her, Jessica and Sunday.”
What actually happened was far more exciting and resulted in a far more controversial decision at Tribal Council. I will discuss my thoughts on David’s idol play further down. But as for a grade, I’m going to give myself a B. I feel like I just took a math quiz. I guessed the correct answer, but my work was wrong!
4. Michaela resists drowning Figgy during the water challenge.
Grade: This I will absolutely give myself an A on this one though.
Part Two: Idol Mania!
In the commercial spot for the next episode, we see Ken consoling a rightfully freaked out Jessica, likely right after getting back to camp from Tribal. We hear her say: “This game just messes with you so much.”
When David played his idol for Jessica, Twitter went nuts. Everyone was either criticizing David or too confused to come up with a comprehensive comment. I have discussed it with a few people since, and am still kind of torn.
On the one hand, David just showed his allies and anyone who could be his ally, that he has their backs. He, Ken and CeCe seem to trust each other already, but now both of them know that David would probably play an idol for either of them if he could and knew they were in trouble. On top of that, Jessica likely feels just a little indebted to David. Does she owe him anything? This is Survivor, of course not, but it’s a lot more likely that Jessica will help David in the future. At least on Takali, this move puts David on good terms with a majority of the people on his tribe. He has also bettered his odds of being with individuals who want to work with him after the tribe swap. On the other hand, he lost his idol to save someone who was ready to vote him out on day three. This kind of security is unbelievably valuable especially on the verge of a tribe swap. David has lost his extra life, and he wasn’t even in danger.
This almost feels like it fits within the season’s theme of long-term vs. short-term. By playing his idol and saving Jessica, David has potentially provided himself with some long-term security by means of trust and kinship with his Gen X allies. If he had kept it, he could guarantee short-term security for himself at any one Tribal, but then be susceptible to votes again right afterwards and potentially just go home the next Tribal.
At the end of the day, I think David made a good play. People were suspicious of him having an idol, and now everyone knows he doesn’t have it anymore. On top of that, someone who was grilling him about it earlier was the one saved by it, so she can’t be too upset. And once again, going into the swap, David has just a slightly better chance of being with players who trust him than he did before.
The next episode is titled “Idol Search Party,” illustrated by the idol hunt taking place at Takali now that everyone knows it’s out there again. If the entire tribe is out looking, someone is bound to find it. So far, there have been idols in a coconut and a clamshell. What other objects can production hide an idol in? My first thought was a marked stone on the beach or on the camp well that someone has to pull off to get to the prize behind it.
But who will find it? Interestingly enough, David is the only one who knows how the idols have been hidden this season, so he has the inherent advantage. That said; Adam found a clue in a tree at the Vanua camp. Based off of this information and the five-second clip we have of people searching at the Takali camp in the “next time” preview, I am going to guess that Chris finds the idol. There’s this quick moment of him kneeling at a knotty tree, pulling his hand back and slowly looking up at someone off-screen with this “no dice” expression. He looks like he’s hiding something. I think he has his hand on the clue and just needs whoever is around to leave him alone for a minute.
(Note: I just re-read that entire last paragraph, and I sound like a crazy person.)
Part Three: Drop Your Buffs.
“There are so many elements to the game of Survivor,
But there are some elements that you have no control over,
And yet they can change your game just like that.”
Quoth the Probst man: “Drop your buffs.”
A tribe swap is always great for stirring up drama, changing tribal dynamics and adding a new flavor to the game. Know what it’s not great for? A blog about Survivor predictions. We have very limited material to look at this week because CBS doesn’t want to prematurely reveal who ends up on which tribe. That said; one little potential twist to the tribe swap has been all but handed to us by CBS itself. The speculation below the following image might be considered a spoiler by some, so feel free to click away now and enjoy some of the other wonderful content here on Inside Survivor.
Over the summer, the CBS online store updated their Survivor gear with the season 33 buffs: Vanua, Takali and a third tribe named Ika Bula. Inside Survivor reported on the twist here. Since merged tribes don’t have their names on the buffs, it is a near definite sign of a third tribe forming at the tribe swap. For the record, I just recently checked to see if the buff was still available in the store, and couldn’t find it.
Personally, I would find it pretty surprising if we had a regular swap this week and then a three-tribe shuffle (also a new dance that’s sweeping the nation) later on. It’s a fair assumption that we will see some folks in green on Wednesday night.
But wait, there’s more! Count the number of castaways remaining. That’s right, 16. 16 does not divide into three even parts. You all remember what happened to Julia Sokolowski last season when she pulled the odd buff out, right? Expect to see one miserable castaway alone at exile after the swap happens. I believe this is confirmed in the first shot of both the “next time” preview and the commercial spot as we see a lone castaway walking along a beach, seemingly coming from the water. I wouldn’t be surprised if this were the opening shot of someone’s exile island vacation. It’s kind of impossible to tell who it is from the aerial view we have, but that won’t stop me from guessing! To me, it looks like David, but it could be Will.
Also, there was something about the tribe swap threatening to split up Taylor and Figgy or something. Whatever. If Figgy gets separated from her allies, she’s doomed.
Part Four: Wrap up!
There aren’t a lot of solid predictions I can make about the next episode, so a lot of this is probably nonsense, but we’ll see.
1. Chris finds the new Takali immunity idol.
2. Two tribes become three and someone, I’m guessing David, gets sent to exile island where he waits to replace whoever is voted out.
3. Hannah tells her tribe about Adam’s idol hunt and gets everyone paranoid about him.
4. Taylor and Figgy get split up, and Figgy gets voted out.
Current winner pick: I think Ken is the guy to beat right now.
Hmmm, Big Baby Grump Chris gets the idol? UGH!
At this point, he’s shown to be very lacking in strategic and social acumen. His last week pretty much confirmed that he was your typical Basic Alpha Bro in Survivor. And based on his sorely lacking gameplay, it’s Basic Alpha Bro-Lite. Blech!
“Over the summer, the CBS online store updated their Survivor gear with the season 33 buffs: Vanua, Takali and a third tribe named Ika Bula. Inside Survivor reported on the twist here”.
Doesn’t this count as a spoiler?
Edit: Sorry, I just went back and read your intro and saw the notice. I usually just skip right to the good stuff!
Ken’s the only one I’m rooting for at the moment so I’m with ya on that. I doubt Figgy will go before Hannah who is kind of obnoxious whereas Fig’s looks fun. Personality counts this season so far.
I think you should let us grade you on your predictions! I’ll start:
Not being snide. They were just all completely wrong in every imaginable sense, with the exception of knowing there was going to be a third tribe. (I too thought it was David in the beginning at first. Then someone pointed something out to me. Watch it again. Notice in the distance, you can see other people? Freeze frame it. It’s the Gen X camp!) Anyway, always fun to speculate.
[…] MY DEFENSE, ahead of last week’s wrap up, I did write: “There aren’t a lot of solid predictions I can make about the next episode, so a […]