Next Time On… Survivor is a blog here on Inside Survivor all about previews and predictions, but with a new twist! Throughout the season I will be chatting with former contestants from other reality shows about Survivor for a feature on the site called Alternative Reality. Any parts of those interviews about predictions or winner picks will end up here! This week, we are joined by Brook Roberts from The Amazing Race.
And as always: this blog is 100% spoiler free speculation. Let’s get into it!
Part One: Previously On…
Let’s see how I did last week.
1. Will wins his second individual immunity challenge.
Grade: He didn’t win immunity, but you know what he did win? Soft drinks. F.
2. [Redacted] and Jay use their knowledge of Adam’s reward stealer to throw him under the bus. Adam responds by telling on [redacted], but everyone already knows.
Grade: I mean, yeah. This was a given, wasn’t it? This whole tribal council reminded me of my 4th-grade classroom. I was Adam in a lot of those situations. No matter how false and obscene the statement, all you can do is keep denying it as the onslaught of pointed fingers and laughter hits you deep in the psyche over and over, getting louder and louder.
…anyways.
Honestly, it’s probably better everyone knows about Adam’s advantage so that it’s not as jarring when he eventually uses it. At least [redacted] did something good for someone’s game. What a moron. A.
3. Adam plays his idol after receiving a majority vote at tribal council and eliminates [redacted].
Grade: Honestly, I thought this was going to be the case up until the vote. Adam was getting a nice chunk of negative screen time. And for the second time, there was quite a bit of build up to a potential idol play. That said, it should be clear how happy I am with the vote. I’ll give myself a B- for getting the eliminated contestant correct.
Part Two, appendix a: Damn you, editing!
A big issue with making predictions this week is the knowledge that we have a two-part episode coming up. Unless I’m missing something, no preview material clearly dictates in which order the events previewed are going to happen, if they are going to happen in two separate parts of the episode, or if we only got insight into part one and have no information on part two.
The two important things are the “civil war” between Chris and Jessica, where each side is gathering up allies to take the other out (from what it looks like), and the amazing game of telephone about Jay’s idol that will likely get him in trouble. Full disclosure: my bet is on two out of the three mentioned getting voted out on Wednesday, but the specifics are hard to determine when I don’t know the order of operations.
The editors did a great job with keeping us confused! During idol telephone, we see no Jessica, and during the “civil war” plotting, we see no Jay! This puts both events of the coming episode, as well as the order in which they happen, up in the air. I’ll get more into my thoughts on all this further down, but I thought I should give you my thoughts about this week’s previews in general first.
Part Two, appendix b: Civil War
In the first half of the “next time” preview, we see David strategizing with Ken and Jessica: “The three of us vote out Chris.”
Right afterwards, we cut to Chris, Sunday, Zeke and Bret sitting on the beach with Chris telling them to gun for Jessica, followed by Zeke telling the camera, “it’s a Gen X civil war.”
This it is! Both Jessica and Chris have their clear allies, but some are a little more uncertain. Chris most likely has Bret on his side, and probably Sunday too as she has spoken about a distance between her and Jessica. On Jessica’s side, she definitely has Ken to work with and, though he has worked with Chris a little bit now, David probably.
But where does everyone else fall? Let’s break it down:
Hannah: There are some lovely press photos of Ken and Hannah watching the sunrise (sunset?) together. I would bet on this being the opening scene of the episode in order to set up their working relationship. Hannah will vote with Ken, and by extent, for Chris.
Zeke: Zeke is the hardest part of this to figure out as he has built relationships with both Chris and David, who is in camp Jessica for this vote. We also see Zeke talking with Chris in that beach shot during the preview. However, in my head I still have the scene of David telling Zeke about his idol to build trust with him, and I don’t think it ever went anywhere. Neither of the past two votes has put much pressure on that relationship. I believe that it will come into play this week, and Zeke will decide he trusts David more than Chris. Zeke will vote for Chris.
Adam: Adam’s got a pretty tight relationship with Ken and Jessica, so this one seems obvious. Adam will vote for Chris.
Will: Will seems to trust Zeke, so Will will probably vote for Chris.
Jay: From the relationship that’s been established on the island, my guess is that Jay will vote with Sunday and against Jessica.
If these happen to be correct predictions, Chris will go home in a 7-4 vote. Even if Jay weren’t in the picture because he was eliminated in the first half of the episode (which I will get to in the next section of the blog), the vote would have the same results.
But of course, this would be a fairly straightforward I’m-voting-for-you-and-you’re-voting-for-me situation, which only happens so often in the modern post-merge game. I want to offer you one other specific scenario that I can see playing out in the next section of the blog. But first, I asked Brook Roberts from The Amazing Race about her thoughts on the coming episode:
JD: We have a two-hour episode, two vote-offs. So what do you think is gonna go down in the next episode?
BR: My guess, if I had to guess, it’s either gonna be obviously Jay, unfortunately possibly Adam, and possibly Jessica. I think right now those are my three front-runners. Just based on logistics and what people have, what they don’t have, beefs against people. I can’t imagine it being anyone else, you?
JD: I have a good feeling Jay is gonna get knocked out soon, but there is this idol. So I’d be shocked if he didn’t play it at the next tribal. But the question is who he targets because of that.
BR: I was gonna say, yeah.
JD: And the trailer implies that there’s this Gen X civil war coming up and that Chris and Jessica are targeting each other.
BR: I don’t know if I see that. Maybe that’s because I like Chris so much, I can’t fathom him doing that. I feel like he’s been a pretty straight shooter. I love people that are straightforward, shoot from the hip, and that’s the kind of vibe he gives off, which I really appreciate. So I hope he doesn’t get all shady and you know. I think they’re doing a great job being mature and sticking together, so if they start Generation World War III, I think it’s a disservice to the bond they’ve created. Even if at the beginning of the season they had a little beef, of course they would, because you’re fighting amongst each other. Now that you’re against the Millennials, you might wanna get together. So that’s kind of disheartening, but that would be interesting to see how that plays out. I just pray that my golden boy Chris doesn’t disappoint me and do something shady.
JD: That’s the thing, though. We’re at eleven players now and unfortunately; there’s a final three. So people do have to turn on each other eventually, and I think now a lot of people are starting to feel that because they have options.
BR: True. Do you feel this way too (and it could just be the editing): other than the romance and all that kind of stuff, I don’t feel super strong bonds. I don’t feel like anyone is forming a very deep meaningful friendship or relationship. Do you feel that way?
JD: I think there are a few examples of people getting closer, but they’re not illustrated nearly as clearly as the romance was because, I don’t know, it’s a TV thing. I think David and Ken have a really cool friendship. I wish they’d show it more because I think it’s hilarious. I think Sunday and Jay have a very mother-son relationship, but once again, only shown a little bit. I get what you’re saying.
BR: Oh, and David. He’s such a little card. He kills me. What a great cast. That was a great pick. I mean, so funny. “Oh my god! I have, not one but two idols? I love this show!” His enthusiasm-! That tiny little scrawny man, he tries so hard.
JD: I got respect for him, I think he’s doing great.
BR: You and me both! He knows how to play the game.
Now, for something completely different.
Part Three: JAY DOES HAVE AN IDOL?!?
First, let me just straight-up write out the second half of the “next time” preview:
Probst narration: “Will puts his trust in Zeke.”
Will: “I don’t want to tell too many people.”
Will to Zeke: “Jay does have an idol.”
Zeke to David: “Jay does have an idol.”
David: “That’s good to know.”
David to Chris: “Jay does have an idol.”
Chris to Bret: “Jay does have an idol.”
David to Hannah: “But did you hear what Will told Zeke?”
First off: bravo to the editors.
Secondly, after considering everything we know about the coming episode, I’ve decided that we actually have no insight into “Million Dollar Gamble (Part Two)” and that all the videos and pictures are from part one. Therefore, I am going to write out what I think will be the synopsis of the first hour of the coming episode. Here’s how I think it’s going to go down:
Will, realizing his primary allies are gone with the wind (snuffer?), decides to throw Jay under the bus by telling Zeke about his idol. This gives Will the opportunity to create some new relationships with other players and maybe garner some trust. Unsurprisingly, word gets around to everyone.
The key person here is David. David finds out from Zeke and is shown telling Chris. Originally, this moment made me think that David had turned on Jessica and Ken. It’s not. David is telling Chris about Jay’s idol to sway him to vote for Jay instead of Jessica. We even see Chris consider the option when he decides to tell Bret about the idol as well.
If Chris comes around and realizes this is a good opportunity to take out Jay, he will redirect those voting with him to take out Jay. Even those not originally voting for Jessica will probably be more on board to vote with Chris to eliminate Jay out of fear of his idol.
And what’s the other clip from the preview that features David?
That’s right. I believe David is orchestrating a play that will both force Jay to play his idol AND take out Chris. If David instills that idol fear in everyone, he’ll take the heat off of Jessica and put it all on Jay, giving David, Jessica, and Ken the perfect opportunity to take out Chris without any resistance.
A little fan fiction-y? Maybe. But I can absolutely see this all going down in the first hour.
Here are Brook Roberts’s thoughts on what’s about to go down, as well as her winner picks:
JD: So you think Jay, Jessica and Adam are at risk for Wednesday?
BR: Yup, they’re in the mix. Specifically, I can see the biggest complaint of Adam is he’s too wishy-washy. Being in it, that would be very frustrating and people like that, you want to vote off because if they’re not with you, they’re against you. That’s why I feel like he’s always gonna be on the fringe because he’s really been confusing to people around him that are trying to get him on their side.
JD: Last question! Who’s your winner pick for the season?
BR: Winner winner chicken dinner is my supermodel Ken. I just adore him. And I know that’s the same pick for everyone. Can I pick two?
JD: You can do a runner-up, sure!
BR: David! Call me crazy; I go from supermodel to the guy who’s like, afraid of a bug. There’s something about those two; they’re right under the radar, just smart enough. You can’t be too behind the pack, and you can’t be too far ahead because you’ll get iced either way.
JD: I’m just hoping Ken doesn’t get the Michaela treatment where he gets built up for the first half of the season and then gets booted all of a sudden.
BR: I know! That’s why my runner-up is David. Because everyone would wanna compete against him, know what I mean?
JD: Any other things you wanna say about the season?
BR: I love the theme, I love the players, I think they cast beautifully. And at the end of the day, even the ones that are, not necessarily villains but come across as cocky or arrogant, hey, great cast. I applaud CBS for the crew. They did a wonderful job, and it’s been a pure joy to watch.
JD: Yep, give Lynne Spillman a round of applause.
BR: Yeah! I love her.
Part Four: Wrap up!
Let’s break it all down. I’m also including a few predictions here about the challenges because I didn’t feel they needed entire sections of the blog to be talked about!
1. The first reward challenge features a letters from home reward. I’m basing this off of the shots of Adam and Sunday crying in the preview. I’m assuming they both get their letters, as well as their teammates, Hannah, Bret and Zeke who we can all see working together in the press photos. Jay isn’t seen competing, but he is seen on the mat before the challenge, so he’ll probably bet on one of the teams. I think Ken will win the first immunity challenge since it is somewhat similar to the last one. Beyond that, I have no idea what the next challenges are, so I’m not going to make any more guesses!
2. That crazy situation I detailed in part three comes true, and Chris is voted out as Jay plays his idol.
3. In part two, an idol-less Jay is targeted for being a threat, but I think there’s been a subtle build-up to Sunday’s elimination. Without much more analysis than that, my bet is on Sunday being eliminated in part two.
4. Jacob still can’t solve one of those damn Instant Insanity puzzles featured in the reward challenge.
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I don’t think they actually show Zeke telling David. They show Zeke saying “Jay has an idol” will a close up of Zeke. Then they show David saying that is good to know. I think this is just clever editing to make us think Zeke told him. And I think David telling Chris is just David trying to convince Chris to vote Jay not that he actually knows