We’re finally back with a brand new season and the premiere didn’t disappoint – well, not entirely. A lot of things happened. First off, I’m digging the Ghost Island theme. I love seeing these fans find previously used idols or advantages and fan-girl over the fact they’re touching them. As for the tribes, Domenick allowed Naviti to get some airtime, but I don’t understand his strategy in telling Chris he didn’t have an idol, then making a ‘fake’ idol, and suddenly telling Chris that he found it. It makes no sense. He could’ve pulled off an amazing move if he managed to plant the fake idol and let Chris find it.
I love that there are so many fans playing on this season, but I feel like superfans get so wrapped up in the moment of being on Survivor that bad gameplay and strategy ends up as a result. Which leads me to… Jacob.
We lost one of our own during his first trip to tribal, which was definitely a disappointment. For someone like Jacob, who is such a hardcore superfan, the person who started this segment on Inside Survivor, I can’t even imagine knowing what it was like to be on a high of your life living out a dream, only to go out second, just as the journey was beginning. I wished the best for Jacob and I thought that the cast’s first impressions on him would be a great start to his game. But I had a sinking feeling that Jacob wasn’t going to fit in. I hoped I was wrong, but unfortunately, my gut feeling turned out to be right.
Overall, my favorite part of the 2-hour premiere was when Donathan called James “exotic.”
Side-note: I tried to spice things up this season by asking a couple of fun questions to previously voted out players, but it’s a complicated story. So I’ll just say the question that got answered was that Jacob said his fro’ could’ve grown really long and I kinda wish we could’ve seen what it looked like come Day 39.
Onto the predictions…
WARNING: The following contains talk about spoilers revealed in the commercial previews regarding the upcoming episode.
Drop your buffs!
Unfortunately, for my first Next Time blog of the season, this is a difficult one. Tribe swaps are a toss up because you aren’t sure who ends up on what tribe. Also, because the swap is happening on Day 7, bonds haven’t had the chance to solidify yet, so this could be an absolute mess when it comes to who will align with who.
Jumping into Domenick’s idol, if he manages to be placed on the same tribe as Chris, there’s a chance the male model could out Domenick because honestly, that fake idol plan wasn’t the smartest. Chris wants to go after Domenick and now has the ammunition to do so – the best thing for the construction supervisor would be to end up on a different tribe. It still doesn’t make sense to me why Domenick wouldn’t want to keep his idol a secret, but for all I know, it could pay off in the end.
I think Stephanie could be in a good position post-swap if she manages to end up on the same tribe as Morgan, who she knows has the Legacy advantage. Some would use that knowledge to paint someone as a bigger threat, but I think Stephanie is smart enough know that she can use that to gain Morgan’s trust and possibly align with her if she needs to. Again – this is all if they happen to be on the same tribe post-swap.
There are five confessionals overall in the commercial and Next Time preview for this upcoming episode featuring Sebastian, Stephanie, and Kellyn, Chris, and Morgan.
Starting off with the obvious in Sebastian’s confessional, he is wearing a Malolo buff, and he is a “happy, giggly piece of laffy taffy.” I can only assume he is pleased with where he is in the game, and his new tribe possibly has the old Naviti numbers on it. Stephanie’s confessional also hints that old Naviti may have the numbers on new Malolo. She says, “I knew I wasn’t going to be in power the whole game, you gotta ride the waves.” And she’s also wearing a Malolo buff, but that isn’t confirmed whether it’s before or post swap. Either way, she doesn’t think she has power in this episode.
Chris and Kellyn’s confessionals aren’t looking promising for them. Chris says that he is a bit scared and in Kellyn’s confessional she is freaking out saying “what has happened over here.” They both have on Naviti buffs, but I’m not sure if it is old or new Naviti buffs. I don’t think both confessionals would be shown pre-swap though, so it’s possible some old Naviti members may be in trouble post-swap.
Morgan also has a confessional where she is wearing a Naviti buff, and she is literally “freaking out.”
Something in the preview we can’t ignore is that Brendan/Michael found a clue or advantage. We see Brendan reading a piece of parchment and saying, “the only question is, can you reverse the curse?” Did either of them happen to go to Ghost Island and find it? Or was this placed at camp similar to Domenick’s idol? If one of them found it at Ghost Island, that means new Malolo lost the challenge, but if not, one of them found it around camp.
The New Tribes
I would never try to spoil anything for anyone, in fact, I don’t know any spoilers. But sometimes the CBS preview can be a bit revealing and fans can get upset because the commercial revealed something that you never wanted to see. If you reacted to the preview this way, do not continue reading.
When analyzing the preview, I managed to figure out how a majority of the swap will play out. 90% of it is based on the commercial being too revealing, and the other 10% is based on analysis of confessionals.
New Malolo will consist of (100% sure of): Des, Sebastian, Chelsea, Bradley, Stephanie, Jenna, Brendan, (50% sure of) Michael. Unknown 9th player.
New Naviti will consist of (100% sure of ): Donathan, (75% sure of) Morgan.
Based on being 100% sure of 7 out of 9 players on new Malolo and being 50% sure Michael is Malolo as well, we know new Naviti consists of Donathan, Morgan, Chris, Wendell, Libby, Domenick, Laurel, James, Angela, and Kellyn minus one of these players.
So no matter how this swap plays out, old Malolo won’t have the numbers on new Naviti. For what I’ve found out from the preview, it is a 4-4 tie on new Malolo, and the 9th member will determine who has the numbers.
Predictions
Predictions will be cut short since this is a swap episode, but will be back in full force next week! I also won’t predict the possible spoilers mentioned above in case some don’t want to see it.
Will Chris out Domenick’s idol?
Overall, I don’t see Domenick leaving this week, so if Chris outs him, he should still be here next episode. If Chris outs him, no doubt Domenick will become a bigger target but something tells me he will be around longer than Chris will.
What if Stephanie and Morgan end up on the same tribe?
I think Stephanie is playing a smart game right now and if they end up on the same tribe, I think Stephanie will 100% use the knowledge that she knows about the Legacy Advantage in order to gain Morgan’s trust.
Who is going to Ghost Island this week?
Based on the preview, I have a few names in mind. Chris, because he said he was a bit scared, Morgan because she is completely freaking out and she looks happy about it, and either Brendan or Michael since it is obvious one of them found an idol or advantage.
Will an idol or advantage be found or played?
It’s obvious Brendan or Michael found an idol/advantage. Domenick also has an idol, but I don’t think anything gets played this week based on the preview not hyping up the tribal for this episode.
Winner Prediction After the Premiere
I’m going to brag a little here, but last season I predicted Ben was going to win after Episode 3 and stuck with it all season. It was a great feeling. So I have a lot riding on this winner prediction this season. With that, I’m team Brendan. He wasn’t invisible in the premiere, his name was mentioned as a possible target when deciding whether to vote out Jacob or not, and he might’ve been the one to find the idol in the next episode. He doesn’t have a huge edit, but he also wasn’t a giant player. I think the edit being given right now gives him a great chance to go really deep in the season.
Have any idea’s who may go home this week? Drop your guesses into the comment section below.
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I have absolutely no idea who is going home lol. So much can happen next episode and they are still trying to introduce players. I dont expect alliances from day 1-6 to stick so everything is a toss up. Usually when someone looks to be a target, the commercial will kinda hint at it but since 60% of the cast was invisible in the premiere, it’s hard to tell whether someone is getting airtime because they are a possible next boot or whether they are actually being introduced and recognized this season. I feel like new naviti may go to tribal though since Chris and Kellyn dont sound so confident.
So it’s going to be two tribes, not three? Seems odd to me, considering they are doing a swap at 18. Kudos to you though, if your predictions here are correct re: new tribe compositions.
Question: since Sebastian is giggly laffy taffy shouldn’t we assume that the mystery ninth member of Malolo 2.0 is also from the original Naviti tribe? This would give them a 5-4 advantage. (Of course, it’s possible that giggly laffy taffy is just Sebastian normal state of mind and that he is happy for no particular reason, but …) I’m hoping that Chris is the ninth member of Malolo 2.0, because I’d like Chris to hang around for a bit and I think he may be in trouble if he ends up on the same tribe as Dominick.
Regardless, if I’m right (based off of your predictions) and Malolo 2.0 has a 5-4 split between former Naviti and Malolo players, this would mean that Naviti 2.0 shares the same 5-4 split. Even without knowing for sure who the ninth player is on Malolo 2.0 they do appear to have a slight edge in term of immunity challenges so I think it is more likely that Naviti 2.0 will go to tribal council. Since Donathan, James and Laurel seem to have something of an alliance I’m going to guess here that they throw Libby under the bus and she gets voted out next.
Overall I thought it was going to be 3 tribes at first but then I noticed in the commercial and press photos that only 2 colors were being shown (purple and orange) and then if you pause the commercial at just the right time while you see Sebastian climbing the wall in the challenge, you can see more then 6 people, so it basically confirmed it for me that it was 2 tribes, not 3.
Also, I mustve missed to add the part where I assumed new Malolo was going to end up being 5-4 with Naviti with the numbers. I did take Sebastian’s confessional into account though. What I missed in the commercial was that Kellyn’s buff was edited! If you zoom in on her buff in the commercial for her confessional, you can see a spot of orange that wasn’t edited out of it.
[…] votes, it was about time to see some true strategy emerge. With an early tribe swap foretold in last week’s preview, I was apprehensive about it coming so soon. There’s been increasing precedence in recent seasons […]