Next Time On… Survivor is a little blog I’m doing here on Inside Survivor, predicting the events of the next episode based on hints from the previous one as well as the preview trailers and commercials.
100-percent spoiler free speculation! Let’s do it!
Part 1: Previously On… Survivor
This thing keeps happening where my biggest predictions don’t take form until the week after I write about them. Sigh.
1. The foreshadowed all-female alliance will be formed with a few male players (Nick, Joe) playing supporting roles.
Grade: Minus a few very important details, this vote went as planned. I presumed the Nick and Michele alliance was slightly more committed than it appeared. I was very wrong. I’ll give myself a C for the women all sticking together.
2. Scot will possess a super idol at Tribal Council and will use it for either himself or Jason.
Grade: HA. HAHA. Look, Jason and Scot need each other at this point. I wouldn’t be shocked if Jason gave Scot his idol to pull off something crazy at Tribal. That said, F. F for Jacob.
3. Michele will be voted out as a result of the idol play.
Grade: I really did think an idol would bust the all-female alliance. F.
Part 2: Let’s talk about stealing things
Jason’s bio mentions his admiration for Russell Hantz. Jason intended to play the Hantzian way the moment he hit the beach. But really, throughout the season thus far, I have not been able to see any real comparison. I didn’t think Jason could muster up that kind of mean-spiritedness.
The 30-second commercial spot shows Scot making the decision to make life miserable for the rest of Dara. He takes the tribe’s machete and axe while Jason states his love for “psychological warfare” in a confessional.
I guess I need to say this because people still don’t know it: Russell Hantz never has, and never will win Survivor. If you make it to the final Tribal Council, your social standing in the tribe – the way people feel about you as a person – will have an impact on the jury’s decision. If you are blatantly arrogant and go out of your way to make life difficult for the people who will be making that final decision, they are not going to vote for you.
When someone like Aubry or Julia or Joe ends up on the jury, do you think they are going to look at Scot or Jason and genuinely say, “Wow. Hiding the pots and knives and starving the tribe… brilliant strategic play there, man.”
No one likes a sore loser. Scot and Jason were on the wrong side of the vote. They messed up, and now they are messing up even harder by letting their frustration dictate their decision-making. I know I have already dismissed the possibility of a Scot or Jason win, but now it looks impossible. After this, the only way for either of them to win will be a Final Two situation with both of them in it, and I don’t think that’s happening.
Part 3: The guy in the middle of the road
Julia is in a pretty good situation right now. She has a tight ally in Michele; she’s in the majority alliance, and she and Tai can always work together if things get weird. This is why I can’t quite wrap my head around why she would be accusable of playing both sides.
Even more than that, I don’t know why this is a big enough deal to include in the commercial spot. So what if Julia is talking to the guys? You should all be talking to each other, even those who you aren’t aligned with, just to keep yourself aware of what’s going on around you. If you isolate yourself from half your tribe, you are isolating yourself from potential backup plans and beneficial relationships. On top of that, Joe voted with the women last week and Tai voted for Jason, not Aubry nor Debbie. Julia isn’t going to be the glue that bonds the four men together. My guess is that there’s a reward challenge where Julia ends up with the men and they win, so she spends the day with them in good spirits, and that bothers the women.
If Aubry and Cydney are so worried, as they appear to be in the commercial confessionals, they should get the other girls plus Joe to take out Scot, Jason or Tai. “Sometimes the guy in the middle of the road gets run over,” Aubry said in one clip. In this case, that guy is a girl, and she isn’t really a risk to your game security unless you start to make her feel uncomfortable by accusing her of treason when she’s just trying to get some food.
Part 4: A quickie about idols
I think Tai is in trouble. Maybe it’s just me, but I feel like he has received less and less airtime over the past few weeks, and has been associated with Scot, who is apparently going to start causing some serious issues around camp. On top of that, he talked about the super idol at Tribal last week, and his backtrack was not strong. I would not be surprised if Tai was suspected of having an idol by most of the tribe.
There’s a scene in the preview with Debbie talking about voting out either Jason or Scot because of how they have made it difficult for the tribe to eat. The clip after it is Aubry angry that Debbie is acting on emotions rather than logic. I think the pieces we aren’t seeing are Aubry trying to convince Debbie that they need to target Tai before he gets a chance to play it.
Part 5: Wrap-Up
Don’t check me, boo.
1. “Psychological warfare” doesn’t split up the girls as much as it does unite them against Scot and Jason even more.
2. Julia will vote with Michele and the rest of the women despite having been “swooped” after the reward challenge.
3. Tai will be voted out with an idol in his pocket.
One more thing! I’m going to add a new piece to the wrap-up where I continuously update my winner pick for the season. Here it is!
Current winner pick: Choo choo! I’m still not fully convinced that Debbie can’t win this season. I get Michele and Cydney hype, I really do, but right now I genuinely feel we have the greatest Survivor winner of all time on our way, and her name is Debbie.