You know what’s hard? Trying to come up with predictions for an episode where the entire configuration of the game is going to change without knowing who is going where. For this post, I’m going to base almost everything I write off of confessionals and player personalities to try and come up with some sort of prediction for what’s going to happen next episode.
Let it be read clearly: this is all shot-in-the-dark speculation; I have no clue what is really going to happen.
Part 1: Who’s The Rat?
I’ve personally decided to avoid any spoilers about the new tribe configurations solely to keep my posts as fair as possible, but that decision is proving to make strategic predictions difficult. Essentially all I know about episode three, ‘We Got A Rat,’ is its title and the knowledge that the two tribes are rearranging into three. So, instead of going crazy to try and determine who’s going to what tribe based on nonsense, I’m going to try and determine whom the title is referring to.
Rats have a special place in Survivor history, but certainly not in a positive way. Generally, any player called a “rat” is believed to be mutinous to an ally or alliance. “We Got A Rat” for whatever reason, does not give off the tone of frustration or disgust – I feel like it could be an exclamation of excitement about receiving information about other tribes and alliances on them. Perhaps this “rat” is someone who felt excluded from his or her tribe but managed to stick around, and then decided to group up with members from other tribes to take out his or her adversaries? Maybe it could just be someone who ended up on a small tribe with a few members of his or her past tribe who wants him out. Hell, maybe it is a direct reference to Kelly Wiglesworth, but I don’t think she would be “A Rat.” I think she would be “The Rat.”
If we are going with this train of thought, I’m going to assume our “rat” is Stephen Fishbach, Spencer Bledsoe, Jeff Varner or Abi-Maria Gomes.
It has been made crystal clear that Stephen would much prefer to play with his fellow game-bots on Ta Keo than the emotional alpha-males of Bayon. If Stephen were to end up on a tribe with Andrew Savage or Joe Anglim or really anyone he doesn’t trust, I am fairly sure he would jump ship and start collaborating with anyone else on the tribe. Similarly, Spencer is in the worst spot on the current Ta Keo tribe. Any exit he can find, he is going to run for even if it means being a rat.
Abi is not an independent player. As of right now, she is Varner and Terry’s shield. The moment she’s on her own, she will run to the nearest majority and throw whomever she had been working with under the bus. But to be honest, I think she might be doomed unless enough people from her current alliance move with her.
Jeff Varner could be in a somewhat similar situation to Abi. Let’s say it’s an absolutely symmetrical world and Varner is on a six-person tribe with two of his fellow former Ta-Keo tribe-mates as well as three former Bayon members. If those two members are Kelly Wiglesworth and Woo Hwang, Varner has a relatively strong alliance. But what if it ends up being Kelley Wentworth, who reluctantly voted with Varner at the last Tribal Council, and Spencer Bledsoe, who clearly wants Varner out after what went down at Tribal? What would stop Varner from immediately working his charming ways on the former Bayon members? Of course, as probability applies, there are not many circumstances where I believe Varner would have to do this.
Part 2: Jacob Makes Random Guesses About What Random Players Are Going To Do
There is not much I can work out from the preview videos, and knowing about the upcoming swap ensures my cluelessness. Therefore, I am going to make a few random guesses about scenes from the next episode based off the first two episodes.
Stephen is going to find an idol. I still believe the reason we saw Stephen searching around that nasty swamp for a hidden immunity idol in the first episode is because he is eventually going to find a clue. Why not next episode? Potentially fresh new campsite, off collecting supplies for a new shelter, stumbles upon a stump; who knows?
Monica is going to speak. Note: Monica and Varner were my pre-season winner picks. This lack of screen time from Monica is killing me.
Kass is going to come more to the forefront. We hear three individual players speak very briefly during the preview. One of them being Kass describing Bayon as “the love tribe.” I could see her being disappointed with her new tribe’s configuration and getting her scheme on though that could get her sent home.
We will witness another 40 minutes of Joe’s new tribe-mates falling in love with him. Yup.
Savage is going to struggle to re-align himself. Andrew Savage ended up with several of the guys I am sure he wanted to be with before the game started. I think he was pretty content with the people he had. Potentially losing Jeremy and Joe and ending up with a more “new-school” mentality tribe could put him in hot water.
I wish I had more to say, but there really is not much to work off of for this week! And in that is what makes Survivor so much fun – sometimes we just have no way to know what’s coming.
Unless you read spoilers.