Jury Jeopardy

It’s time for the bi-annual throwdown where five Survivor websites enter and one emerges victorious. It’s time for Jury Jeopardy!

In this fourth installment of the competition, I will be representing Inside Survivor as I go head to head with the writers of Rob Has a Podcast, True Dork Times, Purple Rock Podcast and A Tribe of One.

Last season, I snatched a narrow victory for Inside Survivor over my opponents – but can I hold onto the title or will another reverse their curse? This season feels like a two-horse race, but do the odds favour Domenick or Wendell? Or are we in for the blindside of our lives and one of the most unexpected winners in Survivor history? This is all about bragging rights, and it’s definitely worth playing for.

THE RULES

For each Juror (and each potential Juror), each website will rank the Final Six by likelihood of receiving their Jury vote.

For example, for Juror Chris, I have ranked Dom > Wendell > Sebastian > Angela. This means that I predict Chris will vote for Dom if he makes the Final Three under any circumstances, but he’ll vote for Wendell if Dom doesn’t make the Final Three. If neither of them make it, Sea Bass will get the vote, and Chris will only vote for Angela in a Final Three of Angela, Donathan & Laurel.

Each blogger will score one point for each correct guess, for a possible high score of ten points. A correct guess is determined by the Juror giving their vote to the highest ranking castaway in the Final Three. For instance, if the Final Three is Laurel, Sebastian & Wendell, I would score one point if Chris voted for Wendell, but I would not score a point if he voted for Sebastian or Laurel.

Once the votes are read, the decision is final and the person with the most points will be declared the winner of Ghost Island Jury Jeopardy.

But if score results in a tie, who wins? Do we go to rocks? A challenge? Do we… fight for it?

It comes down to a game of numbers: who guesses closest to the actual vote distribution? A unanimous 8-0-0? A scattershot 4-3-1? This could decide it all!

Blogger ready? Go!

THE JURY SO FAR…

As with just about every prediction this season, the question comes down to Dom or Wendell. In the case of The Noble One, I expect Chris to make the “noble” choice and give his vote to Dom. Whether it be a gracious defeat to a respected adversary or his ego demanding he lose out to the ultimate winner, Chris will reward the fair victor of their battle, rather than the turncoat who chose the other side.

Should the favourites lose out in an unexpected turn of events, the field is wide open, and I would expect the Jury votes to fall largely based on what will happen in the final three Tribals of the season. But heading into the final four days of Ghost Island, Chris’ votes stand with the Navitis: his fellow kid in the candy store Sebastian and his right-hand woman Angela. Laurel and Donathan have no shot at Chris’ vote after their betrayal of him, particularly for the latter who betrayed a personal bond built over their shared experiences caring for family members.

Libby is a difficult vote to pin down, but I expect the social player to reward social play, giving Wendell the edge over the more aggressively strategic Dom. In her boot episode, we also saw Dom playing the messenger to assure her that she was safe, all the while being involved in the split vote against her – and this more overt part in her elimination puts him down a peg.

Should the top dogs fall, I expect Libby to favour the Old Malolo crowd even though they turned against her at the merge. As the player who has been consistently willing to flip against the powers that be at Naviti, I think Donathan edges out Laurel in this scenario, but an articulate Laurel would still be capable of snagging Libby’s vote over Angela or Sebastian – Navitis who never appeared to connect to Libby on a personal level.

She saw them as big threats and tried to take the shot – Desiree will be happily vindicated by casting her Jury vote for Dom or Wendell. The relaxed social game of Wendell might edge out the more intense Dom, particularly if Des has learned that it was Dom who turned the vote against her after Laurel blew up her spot, but it’s a close race in this scenario.

But if somebody is able to work a miracle and knock these big threats out, Desiree’s vote will go to the instigator of that big move – the person who was able to achieve what she could not. At this stage, it looks like Donathan is the most likely person to be able to lay claim to such a move having placed his flag in opposition to the power couple. In the unlikely Final 3 of Angela, Laurel and Sebastian, I’d gamble that Desiree may throw a vote towards Angela – a Naviti always playing from the bottom and who was not part of the move to eliminate her – over Sebastian, and particularly Laurel who will be held accountable for throwing Des under the bus.

Jenna’s vote is a pretty inscrutable one. Simply because of the groupthink that’s pervaded Survivor juries over the years (as well as their impressive game performance), I’m inclined to believe Jenna will also gravitate to voting for either Wendell or Dom. Between the two of them, though? That’s a crapshoot. I’ve placed Wendell higher because Jenna spent more time with him on the beach, sharing time at Yanuya, and if she follows the crowd (and the crowd follows my predictions), Wendell is the bigger fish.

After that, though? Jenna seemed to have a fairly tense relationship with the remaining Malolo characters (particularly Donathan in her final Tribal), so I believe she’d lean towards them if they can succeed in overthrowing the reigning powers, but for purely meta reasons in a very unlikely scenario, I’ll throw a chunky bone to the remora. Even if he voted her out, maybe Jane would vote for her Tarzan after all is said and done.

Michael played a hard, uphill game and I believe he will surely vote for game. In his final days on Lavita, it appeared that Michael had a closer working relationship with Dom that may give him the edge. Furthermore, Dom has been the more visible strategist between orchestrating votes and wielding Idols and Advantages – a feat that will impress both the scrappy underdog and the Survivor geek in Michael.

If the big boys are overthrown, however, Michael’s vote is up for grabs and will certainly be dictated by the events of the finale. As with Desiree’s vote, I’m giving Donathan the best chance to snag Michael’s vote given he seems poised as the most likely player to claim the big move, and the Malolo narrative might also give Laurel a chance if she can craft the right argument at Final Tribal. Sebastian and Angela seem like a long shot, though if Sea Bass – of all people – can be the first to use an Extra Vote to change the outcome of a Tribal it might impress this superfan.

This one is a total shot in the dark – we barely knew anything about Chelsea’s perspective while she was still in the game, much less the inference of where her Jury vote might go. Nevertheless, I expect she’ll favour Wendell over Dom in the showdown between the two obvious contenders. He was her target on the night she went home, and in one of her rare moments that made the edit, she stated that she believed him to be the more dangerous threat compared to Dom.

Beyond these two, Chelsea is likely to live up to her purple edit by voting Naviti Purple. Angela is the only player remaining to have not voted Chelsea out, and presumably, Chelsea had some Naviti connection to Sebastian. I certainly can’t imagine Donathan or Laurel receiving Chelsea’s vote, particularly after they blatantly flipped away from her to send her to her Jury seat.

In true Kellyn fashion, I’m going to trust my probably-untrustworthy gut and put Wendell above Dom once again. As a player valuing empathy and interpersonal connections, I think Kellyn will lean towards Wendell’s style of play and away from the more intense approach of Dom with whom she clashed regularly.

In the unlikely scenario that the kings of the island are dethroned, I think Donathan might have a decent shot. He began to make his (admittedly erratic) moves while Kellyn was still fighting, and if he can turn the tables in his favour and make a compelling pitch at Final Tribal, I can see her being moved to vote for an underdog who made it happen. Angela and Sebastian aren’t the biggest players by any stretch, but Naviti Strong should win out over Laurel’s inflexible strategies, and as one of her last allies in the game, Angela might have the advantage over Sea Bass.

THE FINAL SIX

Despite their conflict back at the Morgan vote, Angela still seems to be looking towards her Naviti Family and will surely reward one of the two frontrunners. Which one, though? It’s a coin flip. I can see the more emotionally-driven Angela connecting with the more easy-going social game of Wendell, but I can also see her looking to reward the family man in Dom. It could go either way, but as Wendell is edging out the lead in the Jury so far, I’ll predict that Angela will follow the trend if her story lands her on the Jury.

If she’s joined by these two big players on the Jury, though, it’s unclear. We’ve seen nothing to suggest that Sebastian and Angela have any strong connection, and between Donathan and Laurel, I believe she’d lean towards the Kentucky kid underdog due to his bigger personality in-game and the real-life factor.

There’s no doubt that if Dom and Wendell are separated either by a vote or by fire, their votes are locked for each other. After all, we all saw that dreamy look in Dom’s eyes when he looked at Wendell a couple weeks back – this bromance is unshakeable! If both he and Wendell are taken out, though, I expect he’d look towards Laurel as his chosen winner – particularly if she played any hand in taking them out. I believe Dom will look to reward whoever he views as the best gameplayer as much of his strategy to this point has involved eliminating goats and dead weight.

For this reason, I rank Donathan third. Despite the clear tension between them this vote, if Donathan is able to turn his hunger to make his move into a reality, all of that bad blood will be water under the bridge. Sebastian and Angela have largely drifted their way to this point – it would take a huge move by either of them to impress the stone cold Godfather of Ghost Island.

On the other hand, Donathan is a player who seems likely to cast a Jury vote in light of his emotional perspective. He claimed his vote was locked for Dom this week, but given their heated interactions, a prolonged conflict could turn that around. In that scenario, it might be the even-keeled Wendell who can snatch this vote away.

On paper, it might seem that Laurel should have a good shot at Donathan’s vote given their long and storied allegiance, but Donathan’s restlessness throughout the merge and frustration with Laurel’s unwillingness to make a move with him seem likely to lead him away from voting for her. Unless she’s up against random Navitis like Angela or Sea Bass.

I would be shocked to see Laurel land on the Jury at this point, but if she finds herself there, her vote would undoubtedly go to the friendship that’s just about cost her the game. Between Wendell and Dom, it’s hard to pick which has the better chance of scoring her vote as she’s been working hand in hand with both of them through the course of the season. Advantage goes to Wendell, however, simply because their connection has read as more inter-personal compared to the more game-focused relationship with Dom.

But if the unthinkable happens and the anticipated Final 3 is wiped out? I think Laurel will credit her Day 1 alliance-mate in Donathan for pulling off a big move on his own and I can’t see the scenario where Laurel’s vote would go for either Angela or Sebastian – although she’s been raked over the coals for not making a move herself, Laurel won’t reward someone who she doesn’t think has played a strong game.

He might have an extra vote in his pocket, but really Sebastian is just a vote in the pockets of Dom & Wendell. If he ends up on the Jury, I fully expect Sebastian to continue to honour his bros. Of the two great whites, though, I’d rank Wendell higher on the list – if only because of the small moment back in the pre-merge when Wendell brought Sebastian his stinky conch shell. Personal moments like that could be a deciding factor in such a tight showdown.

If all the boys fall down, though, I think Sebastian will cast his vote for one of his own and the last remaining Naviti, Angela, would get his vote over the Malolo-lo-lower ranked Donathan and Laurel.

Dom and Wendell are so much in sync that even their strategy for a potential Jury vote seems to be in lock-step. Wendell will vote for his other half if he can, even if Dom is the one to slit his throat with a credit card. They’re both competitive players, but as they demonstrated when they bantered their way through an Immunity Challenge, they’ll still have each other’s backs even in defeat. Laurel ranks next – if she can survive an assassination of Dom and Wendell or even play a hand in the move, their friendship will still trump the vote.

Like Dom, Wendell will be looking to reward game with game, and if it comes down to the trio of Angela, Donathan and Sebastian, it’ll come down to who has the biggest play on their resume. As the most prominent rabble-rouser to this point, Donathan seems like a good bet, but Sebastian has a chance to snag it if he can put that extra vote to good use.

TIE BREAKER

8 – 2 – 0

It seems like this season is trending towards a Dom/Laurel/Wendell Final 3, and if this and all my aforementioned predictions hold true, we’ll see an 8-2-0 victory for Wendell over runner-up Dom and no-vote Laurel. However, an actual showdown between Dom and Wendell seems likely to be a coin-flip – many of these votes could go either way and it could very well be decided by these last couple votes, the fire-making at Four and/or their performances at Final Tribal. Even so, I think one will edge out the other for a decisive majority. If one of them pulls the trigger on the other, though, it seems guaranteed to be a landslide – if not a complete shut-out. Thus, I’m hedging my bets with an 8-2-0 vote count.

GAME ON

If you want to play along at home, leave a comment making your predictions or tweet under the hashtag #JuryJeopardy! And, of course, be sure to check out the predictions of our fierce competition:

Ianic Roy Richards of A Tribe of One

Sarah Freeman and the team of Rob Has a Podcast

Jeff Pitman and the team of True Dork Times

Purple Rock Podcast

• Miscellaneous
• Jury Jeopardy
• Season 36
• Survivor Ghost Island
• Season 36 Jury Jeopardy

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