After last week’s double elimination, eight players are left in the main game. Of the eight, five were in on the Wentworth blindside – Wardog, Devens, Aurora, Victoria and Ron – leaving Julie, Lauren and Gavin out of the vote.
Viewing this week’s preview trailers for episode 11, we are led to believe that there’ll be a new power trio alliance consisting of Wardog, Devens and Ron. We hear Wardog reveal that “we need to get the goats out,” a pitch that I interpret as wanting to take out non-threats to ensure that those players will not be kept to the end over players like Devens and Wardog, arguably the more significant threats in the game at this point.
Indeed, with all returning players gone, and following the Wentworth blindside orchestrated by Wardog, I do the pair of Devens & Wardog will be seen as huge strategic threats to win the season. As such, I can see Devens and Wardog regrouping and being on board with this plan, and I assume they will pull Victoria and Aurora into their proposed power trio since they voted together last tribal.
However, I don’t think Ron is as equally committed to this three-person alliance as Devens & Wardog. Ron’s been playing in the middle, acting as a swing vote, and hopping between alliances for some time now. His confessional in the trailer even indicates him weighing options, considering “if I don’t work with you now, maybe next time.” At the same time (and this is my speculation), Devens’ confessional stating “Ron, Wardog and I kind of need each other” doesn’t run that smoothly, with “Ron” sounding like it was edited into the sentence. To me, it is more likely that Devens is referring to just Wardog and himself needing to protect each other, with Ron pulled along as a number for the plan to work.
On the other side of the tribe, the target of the group is clearly Devens and Wardog. Gavin is seeking revenge on the latter, confessing in the preview that “he betrayed me.” Julie reveals that she doesn’t trust Wardog, having been left out of the Wentworth vote after just forming a six-person alliance at the beginning of the last episode. And Lauren’s confessional discusses how “Devens is much more dangerous.”
We also see Aurora telling Victoria and Ron a plan to vote out Devens. I feel like this involves the original Kama members, plus Lauren, making six votes out of eight players left. Or maybe even seven if Aurora/Ron uses the extra vote. This would let them split the votes between Wardog and Devens, to flush out a possible idol. Between this alliance and the power trio mentioned earlier, I can better see Ron sticking playing on this side.
But there seems to be a third plan in the works. Julie tells Lauren “I’m trying to shake things up,” possibly conceiving an idea to regain better control of the game after being kept in the dark by Ron, Aurora and Victoria at the last tribal council. While I don’t think this will amount to much in the long term, I can see Julie throwing Aurora or Ron’s name out as an alternative target.
To sum up, ultimately the two clear targets are Wardog and Devens. The phrasing of a “crucial immunity win” in the episode description leads me to believe that either one of them wins immunity. I would then guess Devens wins, based on Wardog’s past challenge performance, as well as the sneak preview of the reward challenge which shows him struggling in the water.
All in all, I think either Wardog is eliminated because of how much of a target he proves, or Aurora, spearheaded by Julie who seems to really want her out.
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I think that the most likely boot is Lauren. Kelley is not there to keep her safe.
But Lauren has an idol, which she is more inclined to play now that she’s seen her closest ally get voted out with one in her pocket. Now, she could play it and save herself one tribal council but end up going home the next. But now that she knows Kelly’s idol wasn’t played, she is the only to know that that idol will more than likely be replanted and she could be the only one looking for it. She could end up finding a second idol. But her best chance of staying should be to win immunity first, then she won’t have to play her idol.
Steph, you were dead on. It was indeed Wardog against Aurora and Wardog went. Wow…good call!