Hello all, welcome back to the Edit Bay! This weekly feature takes a dive into the edit of the latest Survivor episode, analyzing the key stories, main characters, and top winner contenders.
For those new to The Edit Bay, it is a condensed version of Edgic, highlighting some of the stand-out story beats from the most recent episode. It also includes my weekly Edgic ratings for each castaway at the end of the article.
OVERVIEW
As we head into the penultimate episode of the season (or Part 1 of a two-part finale if CBS wants to call it that), I’m going to go through the six remaining players in order of most likely to least likely to win. I’ll take into account their overall edit and where things stand with their current stories moving into the last couple of episodes.
RACHEL
I’ve had Rachel on my list of contenders since the very first episode of the season, and her winner chances have only grown since then. Despite a somewhat underwhelming pre-merge, there were moments in Rachel’s edit that stood out as intentionally foreshadowing future importance.
Her premiere edit was strong, with a solid first confessional where she spoke of her love for competition and her love “to win.” She also hit on the “community” theme. There was a significant focus on her relationship with Andy, setting up story beats that would be circled back to later in the season. It’s safe to say that since the merge, the relationship between Rachel and Andy has become the most important of the season.
In addition, there was the stealing rice moment, which was one of those funny, seemingly innocuous scenes that winners have received in the past like Dee and her big toe and Michele stepping on the wrong mat. Speaking of Michele, there was also the focus on a women’s alliance that didn’t really go anyway, but it served to show Rachel making bonds.
Post-merge, Rachel’s edit exploded, receiving countless second-person visibility that talked her up as a threat. She rekindled her relationship with Andy, including flashbacks to their ups and downs throughout the season. Her successes are consistently highlighted, while her flaws are downplayed or purposefully hidden. Just look at how she was shielded from the Caroline vote this week. While the rest of the Underdogs alliance was shown to be overconfident, Rachel was kept off to the side.
Heading into the last two episodes, Rachel’s story with Andy looks set to take center stage yet again. He has now betrayed her for a third time, further confirming Rachel’s pre-merge premonitions that Andy would be bad for her game in the long run. Yet, the edit points to Rachel getting the last laugh, as Andy’s edit has had elements of negativity and arrogance that suggest he will get his comeuppance. That could come at FTC or perhaps a blindside at Rachel’s hands.
SAM
I find it hard to see anyone else winning over Rachel at this stage. That said, if I had to pick a backup, it would be Sam. He had a stronger, more traditional pre-merge edit than Rachel. This included an intro confessional, some personal content (one thing Rachel’s edit is lacking), alliance and relationship scenes, etc.
However, Sam’s edit loosened off in the post-merge. He was pushed aside and often shown to be out of his depth. But in recent weeks, his edit has taken on a scrappy underdog role. He has been portrayed as a fighter, someone who won’t give up. His scene where he apologized to Andy at the reward in the latest episode also showed a maturity and willingness to put grievances aside to better his own game.
Should Rachel end up voted out before the FTC, I could envision a world where Sam wins against a combination of Andy, Teeny, and Sue. I’m just not sure he will make it there to plead his case.
GENEVIEVE
Genevieve is another one who has taken on an underdog edit over these past few episodes. And, like Sam, I could see her winning in a FTC against some combo of Andy, Teeny, or Sue. But I don’t think Genevieve will make it there, as she has the edit of the dragon to be slayed by the eventual winner.
For a while now, we’ve heard Genevieve talk of Rachel as the biggest threat. As for Rachel, we know she is aware of Genevieve’s vendetta against her and has tried to take Genevieve out herself. Based on the preview, it appears this stand-off will continue. I believe the edit points to Rachel coming out on top, especially with how much she’s been protected throughout the season.
In addition, it’s hard to look past Genevieve’s first three episodes. She has undoubtedly been a fantastic character since the Kishan boot in Episode 4, and she’d make a worthy winner. But if she had won, I just don’t see the editors underplaying her to that extent in the first three episodes. She was barely visible, especially in the first two episodes. Some of that could have been intentional to hide her, but I don’t think they’d have gone that far.
Another thing that points to Genevieve leaving before the FTC is the way her edit has developed into a bit of a growth arc in recent weeks. She has explained why she decided to play a calculated, emotionless game and how that has backfired. But she has now learned the importance of social relationships in Survivor and creating a “community.” This is the kind of “win” the edit gives a player when winning the actual season isn’t in the cards.
ANDY
Andy is certainly the biggest character of the season, and his Operation Italy move was one for the books. However, I’ve never really felt like Andy’s edit pointed to victory. Sure, there is always the chance for turnarounds and transformations in Survivor, but his premiere edit did such a number on him that I struggled to see him as a winner.
There are all the hallmarks of a journey edit for Andy, who has gone from the self-conscious, paranoid outcast to the confident, hair-flipping strategist leading votes. Yet, this transformation almost happened too early in his story arc. This has led to a post-transformation story where Andy has shown signs of cockiness that has been the downfall of many a player before him.
Some might perceive his big move last week as his crowning moment. However, I view it through the lens of his story arc with Rachel. The Operation Italy plan was devised to take out Rachel, but it was stopped in its tracks after she won immunity. Yet, Andy went through with the flip anyway, therefore exposing his cards to Rachel and betraying her again in the process.
From their early focus in the premiere, the Andy and Rachel back-and-forth looks set to feature right through until the finale. As I said in Rachel’s section, I don’t see Andy coming out on top in this battle, especially after he’s betrayed her three times. Ultimately, the seeds are planted for Rachel to get her revenge.
TEENY
Teeny probably would have been higher on my list if not for the latest episode. This episode really did a number on their perception, which I think was to show us their winning chances are slim. There has been a throughline of Teeny struggling with the emotions of the game from early on in the season, and this was the culmination of that.
Their reaction to Sam not picking them for the reward painted Teeny as a played ruled by emotions, which blinded them to the reality of the game. There was so much focus on Teeny’s confidence that Sam had tanked his game, which only made them look worse when Sam (and Genevieve) survived the vote. On top of that, it was Teeny specifically who was shown to be fooled by Operation Italy’s fake idol.
At this point, I could very much see Teeny sitting at FTC as a no-vote getter.
SUE
Last but not least is Sue, a player who had a really solid edit in the pre-merge but fell off dramatically in the post-merge. Any sliver of hope Sue had of winning was demolished after that montage the other week where she bitched about Kyle. I just don’t see any world where a winner would be portrayed in such a negative light.
That said, Sue seems all but guaranteed a spot in the FTC. If Rachel is the winner, as I predict, then we’ve had the scene of Rachel and Sue bonding when Rachel told her about the Block a Vote. And now that Caroline has gone, Sue will be looking for a new number one. There was also the scene a few weeks ago of Andy telling Sue he’d like to sit next to her at the end. So there is a world where a Rachel, Andy, and Sue final three makes sense.
Could Sue scrape a vote or two? It’s possible. As I said, she had a solid pre-merge, and she’s had moments where she’s been shown as a competent and feisty player. Caroline credited Sue last week for her work ethic and idol-hunting. Plus, she’s been shown to be strong in the challenges. So, her getting a vote from Caroline or even Gabe wouldn’t come as a complete shock. But as for winning? I don’t see it.
EDGIC CHART
| Name | EP 1 | EP 2 | EP 3 | EP 4 | EP 5 | EP 6 | EP 7 | EP 8 | EP 9 | EP 10 | EP 11 | EP 12 | EP 13 | EP 14 |
 Andy |
OTTN5 | OTTN4 | CP2 | OTTN3 | CP4 | MOR3 | CPM3; | OTT3 | CP4 | CP3 | CPN4 | CPP4 | ||
 Genevieve |
UTR1 | INV | UTR2 | CP4 | CP3 | MOR3 | CP2 | MOR3 | CP4 | CPM4 | CPM3 | CPP4; | ||
 Rachel |
MOR4 | OTT2 | UTR2 | UTR2 | UTR3 | MOR3 | CPP5 | CP4 | CP3 | CP3 | CP5 | MOR2 | ||
 Sam |
CP3 | CP5 | OTT3 | CP4 | CP4 | MOR3 | UTR2 | MOR4 | CP4 | CP4 | MOR2 | CPM3 | ||
 Sue |
MOR2 | MOR4 | MORN2 | CPM3 | MOR2 | MOR3 | UTR1 | UTRP1 | UTR1 | OTTN2 | MOR3 | UTRP2 | ||
 Teeny |
CP3 | MOR3 | CP4 | CPP4 | CP4 | UTR2 | MOR3 | MOR3 | MOR3 | CPP4 | MOR2 | OTTN3 | ||
 Caroline |
UTRP1 | MOR3 | UTR1 | MOR2 | CP3 | MOR3 | CP3 | MOR3 | MOR2 | MOR2 | CPP3 | MOR3 | ||
 Kyle |
UTR1 | UTR2 | CP4 | UTR1 | UTR1 | CP4 | MOR3 | MOR3 | MOR3 | MOR2 | MORP3 | |||
 Gabe |
CP5 | CPN4 | CPN2 | UTR1 | MOR3 | UTR2 | CPN4 | MOR3 | MOR3 | CP4 | ||||
 Sol |
UTR1 | UTR1 | MOR3 | MORP3 | MOR2 | MOR3 | MOR4 | CPP3 | MOR3 | |||||
 Sierra |
UTRP2 | MOR2 | MOR2 | CP4 | CP3 | UTR2 | UTR2 | MOR3 | ||||||
 Tiyana |
UTR2 | CP4 | UTR1 | UTR2 | MORN3 | MOR3 | CPP4 | |||||||
 Rome |
OTTM4 | OTTN3 | OTTN5 | OTTN5 | CPN3 | OTTN5 | ||||||||
 Anika |
MOR2 | MOR3 | MORN4 | UTR1 | MORN3 | |||||||||
 Kishan |
UTR1 | UTR2 | MORP3 | CPN4 | ||||||||||
 Aysha |
MOR4 | UTR1 | MOR3 | |||||||||||
 TK |
MOR4 | OTTN5 | ||||||||||||
 Jon |
CP5 |
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