Next Time On… Survivor is a little blog I’m doing here on Inside Survivor, predicting the events of the next episode based on hints from the previous one as well as the preview trailers and commercials.
100-percent spoiler free speculation! Let’s do it!
Part 1: Previously On… Survivor
Time to check my work!
1. Tai will use his idol at Tribal Council despite not having the highest number of votes.
Grade: Everyone else is going to have to take out Tai, or at least flush his idol, immediately if they don’t want him making it to the final tribal council. F.
2. Julia, Jason, and Michele will vote together and their target, I believe it will be Cydney, will be voted out.
Grade: On the contrary, Jacob. It seems Cydney was actually in consideration of flipping. I am a little surprised she even sat down with Jason. F.
3. Why not? I think there will be a clue to a re-hidden immunity idol at the picnic reward hinted at in the press photos. (By the way, seeing two helicopters in those pictures gave me a panic attack initially.)
Grade: Killing it! F!
Part 2: You’re tearing me apart, Cydney!
Oh hi, Mark.
This week’s episode is being painted as a strategic mess. It is the kind of thing that happens when your core alliance contains several type-A personalities and commanding thinkers like Aubry, Cydney, and Tai who are all threatened by each other. On top of that, you have Jason sitting around as a free agent who everyone believes they can beat at the Final Tribal Council. Bluntly, the fracturing of the Cydney, Aubry, Michele, Tai and Joe alliance is inevitable. The question becomes – how does it break? Do they end up splitting and voting for each other? Is Jason involved or just sat on the sidelines like in the last reward challenge?
We see a few clips of different conversations about the same decisions in the preview for this week’s episode. We open with Jason, Cydney and Michele discussing the title of the episode, “Now’s the time to start scheming,” in the shelter at night. Afterward, we see Tai and Aubry wading in the water, discussing their need to take out Michele because “she’s a bigger threat” than whomever else they might be talking about.
Cydney is not having it, exclaiming in a whisper: “Tai is not going to dictate who I vote for,” at Aubry (I think. This could be an editing trick.) The next shot is of Cydney approaching Joe about going after Tai, and supposedly getting the approval of the idea from Joe who says, “I’d like to get rid of him.”
The last moments in the preview show Cydney confronting Aubry. “If it came down to it would you vote with me or would you vote with them?”
Based off everything else in the commercial, I think the following is a valid prediction: Cydney, Joe, and Michele all plan on voting out Tai to avoid an idol play at the Final Five, and they need Aubry to avoid tying the vote. That said, I think Tai will find a way to survive this week.
According to the teaser from the end of the episode, Jason is desperate to strategize with anyone, so if Tai senses that his alliance is not entirely cooperative with targeting Michele like he wants to, he could absolutely approach Jason and work something out with all his advantages. If we want to get really fan fiction-y, what if the rest of the tribe split the vote between Jason and Tai due to seeing them around camp, and Tai used his extra vote in tangent with Jason? 2-2-3 vote and whoever they picked would be out.
Or, more likely: Michele, Jason, and Cydney all vote for Tai but Aubry and Joe put two votes on Jason in the case of an idol play (or some variation of this). Tai proceeds to use his extra vote and take out Jason with four votes to his three.
This is looking like it’s going to be a heck of a week for strategy.
Part 3: I’m the boss
The description for the episode mentions that “one castaway is under fire after bossing others around.”
Initially, and I am sure plenty of you thought the same thing, I thought of Joe. We do not see a lot of Joe, but way earlier in the season we saw how he seemed to upset Liz. One of the only personality traits he has been given on the show thus far is that of the somewhat impatient, even dismissive, older guy, whether that is really how Joe is in real life. He may be following his allies on many of the votes, but we have seen him actively dispute their decisions before.
But bossy? I would not label Joe as bossy. In this case, I think Tai is being framed as a bossy character. Not in the sense of having coconuts brought to his pet chicken by his tribemates, but more in the sense of his forwardness in wanting to vote Michele out. It does not come across so harshly in the previews, but I suppose Cydney finds Tai’s push to take out Michele upsets her, thus the conversation she has with Aubry in the commercial spot.
Of course, we also have the immunity challenge. With such few players left, being safe at Tribal can completely trash someone else’s move. For example, if Tai were to win immunity, the guy is clear to the Final Four no problem. If Michele were to win immunity, Tai and company would have to target someone else, and that someone else might end up being Cydney! Neither of these are unlikely scenarios.
Part 4: Wrap-Up
Three. Episodes. Left.
1. Aubry will win immunity.
2. Three votes will go to Tai. Two will go to Jason as backup in case Tai plays the idol. Tai will use his extra vote and his regular vote to also vote for Jason, making it a 3-4 vote where Jason is voted out.
3. A final three deal with Tai, Aubry, and Joe becomes more significant, whether it comes true or not.
Current Winner Pick: I’m going to flop. I thought everyone was targeting Cydney. I was wrong. Cydney is my pick to win right now.
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I think it’s gonna be 4-3 (or 5-2) with Michele, Jason, Cydney, and Joe (and Aubry if she votes with them) voting for Tai vs. Tai + advantage (+ Aubry) voting for Michele with Tai going home with the idol. I think Tai will be very confident about his chances that he can use the advantage here at Final 6 and then use the idol at Final 5