Well, here we are at the halfway point of Survivor 47. As we all know, the final nine are locked in a battle of wits, in a constantly shifting game of strategy and survival. If there’s anything I’ve learned over the last 23 years of watching Survivor and playing way back when, it’s that human nature is always ready to claw its way out, fierce and feral, especially when the title of Sole Survivor and a million bucks is on the line.
After this week’s episode, you can only imagine the tension as the players returned to camp under a sky thick with shadows and whispers. With Sol blindsided and dispatched, the remaining nine now walk their own narrow paths, each guided only by the flickering flame of hope. But as Sol learned, those flames in Survivor burn out all too quickly.
Here is my list of players who I believe are positioned to win, arranged in order of likelihood. This assessment is part of an exercise I’m doing as I develop characters for my first novel, The Tomb Reader. After all, every story has a beginning, a middle, and an end. With hindsight, and with half the cast already nursing their collective Survivor wounds, here are my thoughts on who is set up to win, from a character perspective, and why.
First, there’s Rachel LaMont. If she were a character in The Tomb Reader, she’d be that girl on the playground, crouched low with dirt on her hands, sharp-eyed and watchful from the edges. Rachel entered the game as a quiet observer, a designer with a keen eye for strategy. But when her main ally, Anika, was eliminated, like losing your flashlight just as you hear a twig snap behind you, Rachel’s game ignited. Sol’s Safety Without Power advantage gave her a second wind, she hit the food auction jackpot, found a hidden immunity idol clue in her fries, and skillfully snatched the idol right under her tribemates’ noses. And then followed that up with a bold Shot in the Dark play.
Now, let’s be transparent. I’ve had the privilege of playing Texas Hold’em with Rachel, and I’ll tell you this: she knows how to read a room. Rachel’s got a knack for spotting a person’s “tells” and understands the value of a patient game. Yes, she stumbled with Sam on the Sol vote, but she ended up on the right side, and she won’t make that mistake again. She’s the kind of player who’s underestimated, but if she keeps pulling off those clutch moves, she just might be the one holding that million-dollar prize at the end.
Next is Genevieve Mushaluk, a lawyer from Winnipeg with a mind as sharp as a scalpel, ready to slice through anyone who stands in her way. Early on, she aligned with Rome Cooney, using his strength as a shield until he became more of a dead weight she was forced to drag along. Rome fell, but Genevieve rose, leaving blindsides like Kishan’s and Sol’s in her wake. Genevieve isn’t just playing to make it to the end; she’s here to twist the knife. She’s the one watching with cold, calculating eyes from the end of a dark hallway, waiting for you to slip. Every move has been calculated, each one as precise as the last, and she’s willing to bleed a little to make it to the end.
If Genevieve’s story keeps on this path, she’ll be that player who walks the razor-thin line between sharp strategy and staying just beyond her competitors’ grasp. But here’s the catch, Genevieve’s moves have been bold, and people are starting to notice. I know from experience what it’s like to be in that position, at the top, and making the calls. And when you’re that visible, that powerful, well, sometimes all it takes is a few coconuts to take you down.
Then there’s Andy Rueda, a guy who’s been on one heck of a redemption tour. Right out of the gate, Andy had an uncomfortable meltdown, showing a vulnerability that most players never access. But soon enough, he turned it into part of his strategy. Realigning his game, Andy began making moves and joining blindsides, helping to orchestrate and ensure Sierra’s downfall. His story has shifted from the underdog to the disruptor, and it’s a journey that resonates. If he can keep adapting and pushing, he’s got a real shot.
It’s not easy to recover from an early misstep, but the AI research assistant from Brooklyn, who came in like a quirky, fragile little bird, has turned his perceived weakness into a weapon, using his mistakes to make others think he’s too messy to be a threat. What I love about Andy is his ability to disappear and reappear, just enough to stay in the game without raising too many flags. It’s the kind of transformation that people either admire or fear, and in a game like Survivor, that blend of elusiveness and resilience could lead straight to a win.
Sam Phalen, the sports reporter, very quickly entered the game thinking he’d coast along with Sierra Wright on his right and naïve little Andy on his left. Sam and Sierra had a bond that played like a sibling rivalry, though some, looking at you Anika, saw it as something, well… different. Nonetheless, entering the merge as an obvious power duo is like marching into a haunted house and shouting, “We don’t believe in ghosts!” Power duos are a big red flag in this game, and sure enough, when Sierra got bounced, Sam found himself alone and forced to quickly adapt.
At first, you’d think Sam might try to fade into the background, hoping the tribe would zero in on physical threats like Kyle and Gabe. But after Rachel’s slip-up, Sam seized the moment to play chaos agent, attempting to flip the vote and aim it at Sue. Now, with Sol out of the game, the target on Sam is unmistakable, big, red, and burning hot, right at the center of his chest. And who will be aiming that laser? None other than a “45 year old” scorned woman. The next days will be uncomfortable for Sam, as Sue, steady and unflinching, locks her sights right on him.
Gabe Ortis fits the role of the classic strongman, sitting comfortably at the top of the food chain. With his strength and endurance on display and an individual immunity win under his belt, he’s now fully marked as a prime target. Both he and Kyle have clear paths to win, but brute strength alone won’t get them there. The thing about physical power in Survivor is that it’s like a torch in the dark; it burns bright, but it also attracts way too much attention. Gabe has tried to offset his dominance with charm, but charm only works until everyone realizes the real threat is standing right in front of them. Unlike Kyle, he doesn’t seem to have the same level of individual immunity winning prowess, and as a result, Gabe’s days are numbered.
Teeny Chirichillo is a quiet player, the kind who moves through the game like a whisper in the wind. She’s adapted, realigned, and survived more by blending in than standing out. Teeny’s story isn’t filled with bold moves, but it’s built on survival through observation, the way a ghost might drift through a haunted house, barely touching anything, leaving no trace. If she wants to claim the crown, she’ll have to lash out at some point, something to prove she’s alive, that she has teeth to bare. Now that her number one ally, Sol, was taken out, we might see her turn into a different player. I think not. I think it’s too little too late for this one.
And then there’s Kyle Ostwald, the physical powerhouse, the guy you look at and instantly underestimate, both athletically and intellectually. Big mistake. Everyone now knows Kyle can win just about any challenge he puts his mind to. He’s been racking up immunity wins like trophies, but every win makes that spotlight bigger and bigger. He’s got allies, sure, but his strength is his biggest weakness. I predict that Kyle will win his way right out of the game.
Dear Sue, Ms. Smey is 45 going on 59. She’s steady, loyal, and clearly not afraid of a little red paint. As a Gemini, Sue’s duality is best exemplified through her relationship with Caroline and, conversely, with her early victim, TK. Her Gemini social game, as expected, is strong, and her relationship with Gabe is built on mutual trust and collaboration. This combination keeps her safe but doesn’t give her much power or agency.
Sue’s been playing a long game, relying on patience and the loyalty she’s built with others. It’s a smart way to play, but in the end, will the jury respect it? She might make the final tribal, but without bold moves, it’ll be a tough sell. Will Sue make that risky move she’s been holding back, or is it too late? I believe it’s the latter. Her opportunity to take out Gabe is gone, and someone else will get credit for that move, and that lost opportunity will be her undoing.
And last, we have Caroline Vidmar, the strategy consultant who seems to be testing the theory that no strategy can, in fact, be a strategy. She’s the quiet one, the observer, biding her time in the background while letting others take the reins. I’ve seen that approach before, and sometimes it works, if you’re saving up for one big strike. But here’s the catch, Caroline must make that move soon, or she’ll end up as just another face at final tribal, without much to show for it.
Right now, she’s slipping through the game, but Survivor doesn’t reward shadows for long. I believe her arc ended the moment those tiles fell in the cave and took her vote with them. If she does make it to the final tribal, I suspect her game will end as quietly as it began.
At the halfway mark of Survivor 47, we’re left with a solid group of contenders, but if you ask me, it’s Rachel, Genevieve, and Andy whose game it is to lose. They’re the players who’ve adapted, taken risks, and reshaped their strategies with each Tribal Council. That’s what it takes to survive the game’s twists and turns. If I were a betting man, and I am, my money’s on Rachel to pull off the win and claim the crown. If you didn’t know by now, I love me some Survivor.
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Me too!! The flow of human nature is so interesting it’s no surprise this program has been off the charts holding spectators close to its agenda.
Thanks, John. This is pretty close to my own read that Rachel will win. Marquesas is one of my favorite seasons. I vote for your return as an old guy (to represent for all of us old guys!