Next Time On Survivor – Episode 11

Next Time is back! This is a blog all about decoding previews, commercials, and previous episodes in order to predict what’s coming next on Survivor.

Hey folks, Martin here, Jacob is on vacation this week, so I’ll be filling in for this edition of Next Time On Survivor. Jacob will be back in action next week. I’ll try and keep my predictions based on the previews, although with my focus on Edgic it will be hard not to slip into some edit analysis along the way I’m sure.

Part One: Previously on… Survivor

First off, let’s evaluate Jacob’s predictions from last week.

1. The immunity challenge appears to be one of those block-stacking-on-an-unstable-table challenges. I think Andrea will win that.

Grade: Close! Andrea was almost there until her stack, unfortunately, toppled which allowed Troyzan to snatch the win. Shall I be a harsh teacher and give an F? Hmm. I’ll be fair and give a D- because Andrea was extremely close.

2. As for the reward, I don’t know. Let’s say that the Tai, Cirie, Aubry, Troyzan and Sarah team wins.

Grade: No fairness here. This team lost, and quite emphatically. Unlike Cirie, there is no chance for Jacob to try this prediction again until he gets it right. F.

3. Sarah will talk to Zeke about making a move, but Zeke will take that opportunity to screw over Sarah and get in good with the majority alliance. Sarah will be voted out.

Grade: I could see what Jacob was thinking here, especially with Zeke’s eagerness to take control. However, Sarah remained completely in charge last episode and had the choice for which alliance she wanted to side with. Instead, it was his former Kaoh Rong winner pick Debbie who was voted out. F.

Part Two: Tides Have Turned?

With Sarah flipping on the “Power Six” and eliminating Debbie, it looks like Cirie’s alliance now have control of the game. If only. That seems way too easy and judging by the post-episode teaser, things are going to be shaken up again.

“The tide has turned,” Jeff Probst says at the start of the preview. We see the likes of Cirie, Andrea, and Zeke congratulating each other for a move well done and a snippet of a Brad confessional saying “The six of them are thinking, ‘Aha we gotcha.'”

But like I said, that seems way too simple. Probst then follows up, “But the line in the sand… is washed away.” The confidence in this statement stood out. It wasn’t a question like “Will the line be washed away?” It was an emphatic “IS washed away.” All signs point to alliances shifting once again.

So what will these new alliances be? And who is being targeted? We see Andrea and Cirie talking at the well with Sierra. “You’d be on board to vote for whoever, right?” Andrea asks Sierra. In confessional, Andrea continues “Let’s make a bigger move here.” That suggests that there is initially a predictable boot option, assumingly someone from the former Power Six alliance, but throughout the episode that target shifts onto a more interesting scenario.

Also looking to make an interesting move, is Zeke, who we see chatting with Brad and Troyzan on the beach. “On the next vote, we do something interesting,” he tells them. “Now the game has been broken open, and I can play how I wanna play,” he follows up in a confessional. Zeke obviously sees the opportunity to turn this season into post-merge Millennials vs. Gen-X, with the shifting allegiances and #BIGMOVEZ.

What stands out to me from this preview is that Andrea and Zeke are the ones highlighted plotting the big moves. Given their somewhat heated confrontation last week, I can’t see their reluctant partnership lasting very long. Andrea said last week that she’d never fully trust Zeke again and Zeke himself told us he didn’t really want anything to do with Andrea. I believe this week, Andrea and Zeke are targeting each other.

Cirie is probably on board with Andrea to take out Zeke. And I assume Aubry and Michaela would go along with that too. That gives them four votes, but with ten players left in the game, they’ll need six to make it happen. My thinking is that Andrea will believe she has Sarah on her side, and so she’s reaching out to Sierra to be that sixth vote against Zeke. In the 30-second commercial spot, we hear Sierra say, “I’m not safe, I don’t feel safe.” So I think Sierra would jump at the chance to vote anyone which isn’t herself!

However, I’m not so sure that Sarah is loyal to the Andrea/Cirie faction. We’ve heard her talk highly of her trust for Zeke this past couple of episodes. So, if Sierra does decide to flip to the other side to vote Zeke, it could once again leave Sarah in the middle of two warring alliances. I believe this vote will come down to Andrea or Zeke.

Part Three: Spilling Secrets

The thing that could decide which way the vote goes this week is secrets. More precisely – secret advantages. This is the description for the upcoming episode:

“Reinventing How This Game Is Played” – One castaway’s alliance reacts after one of their own admits to flipping, and another Survivor must decide if they should reveal their secret advantage in the game to a trusted ally, on SURVIVOR, Wednesday, May 3 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT) on the CBS Television Network.

First of all, that title is hyperbolic af. Initially, I thought it suggested someone trying to pull off a crazy move. But judging by the latest sneak peek, it’s simply the answer to the word puzzle in the reward challenge. Once again, it’s the show trying to force this “game-changing” narrative. I predict this is going to take well over an hour for anyone to solve this dumb ass puzzle.

As for the description itself, the first part is clearly referring to Sarah and her flip last week. It makes me believe that Sarah will be open about her decision to vote Debbie and probably try and justify it to the likes of Brad and Sierra. I could see her framing it as not trusting Debbie because of what she told Aubry, rather than her turning on the entire alliance. That way it keeps Sarah’s options open.

The second part of the description about someone considering whether or not to reveal their secret advantage also sounds like Sarah. But the phrasing “another Survivor” is throwing me. The only other person with a secret advantage is Sierra, but I’m not sure why she would tell anyone about it? It’s not as if the Legacy Advantage could be used to flip the game right now, as it has a specific usage date. However, we did see Jessica telling Ken about it last season, and that seemed to cement their trust. Perhaps Sierra is worried about losing the loyalty of a “trusted ally,” and so tells them about the Legacy thing to show a sign of goodwill? Maybe she offers to give this person the Legacy Advantage if they both make it to Final 6? I’d guess that person is Brad because he’s been presented as her most trusted ally.

However, that doesn’t make a whole lot of sense to me. So I’m sticking with the belief that the entire description is about Sarah and “another Survivor” is just bad wording. I think Sarah will be caught in the middle of voting either Andrea or Zeke. It would be five votes for Zeke (Andrea, Cirie, Aubry, Michaela, and Sierra), and four votes Andrea (Zeke, Brad, Troyzan, and Tai). Therefore, the decision Sarah will be contemplating will be whether or not to tell Zeke about her Vote Steal advantage. Her option could be to vote with the Zeke group and steal, let’s say, Andrea’s vote, making it a 6-4 vote against Andrea.

Will she do it? That’s where the “must decide” part comes into play.

Part Four: Who’s gonna win?

After losing his original picks of Malcolm and Hali, Jacob is now firmly in the Brad camp. I think that’s a logical choice. Those who read my Edgic posts will know that I believe Brad and Sarah are being presented as the top two contenders. I personally lean more toward Sarah at this point, but Brad is a solid pick.

Part Five: Wrap-up!

How’s it gonna go down? Maybe like this:

1. I didn’t mention the Immunity Challenge above, but judging by the press photos, it seems to be the domino challenge. Hmm. I’ll say Tai for the win.

2. The puzzle portion of the reward challenge will take over 60 minutes to complete.

3. Andrea and Zeke will come after each other. Sierra will jump ship to vote with Andrea/Cirie, but Sarah will stick with Zeke, telling him about her Vote Steal.

4. Sarah will use her Vote Steal advantage on Andrea, and as a result, Andrea will be voted out.

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