Last week, three advantages got played, but the outcome of tribal council didn’t feel that exciting to me. I think it was obvious that Dan was going to get booted sooner or later, and the consistent undermining of his actions suggested his blindside too. I actually found myself hoping he’d win immunity so that we would see a less convenient target.
At tribal, we also saw Alec and Kara voting for Angelina, and subsequently, Alison revealing in the preview that voting for her was a “contingency plan.” I think the trio is well set to stick together for the remaining portion of the game, and it would be difficult for Angelina to rally against them. We haven’t seen her bonding with the remaining Davids, compared to the bonds between Alec and Nick, Alec and Christian, Alison and Gabby, for example, and even Kara and Davie from the pre-merge.
Furthermore, I feel like Angelina’s on borrowed time, a safe name to throw out to get through a tribal easily. Although an argument can be made to take what seems like an unlikable player to the end, I feel like it’s still too early for the players to be planning that. As such, I think that as determined as she seems in the preview to exact her revenge, I don’t think she’ll be in control of the coming vote. She may be able to slip into the correct side of the numbers, but only as a temporary number and not a priority to keep around.
“When you get cocky, you’re gonna get blindsided”
My instinct following Alec’s statement is that it’s just a line he said that applies to the general gameplay of Survivor. He may be reacting towards the Davids’ performance at the last tribal, but I think it’s in his best interest, plus Alison’s and Kara’s, to work with at least some of the Davids going forward. Currently, I’m predicting that this alliance of three will be able to exploit the cracks amongst the Davids and get in with a bunch of them to further their own game. I see them as a sort of triumvirate oscillating between other groups of people.
In the preview, Alison mentions “music to my ears,” which I read as referring to the impending rift between Carl and Gabby. If the three Goliaths are able to utilise this fracture, perhaps aligning with Gabby and Christian, whom I predict will continue sticking together, I feel like they’ll be elevating themselves to a strong power position.
On the other hand, we have Mike, whom I imagine will be scrambling in the coming episode. He’s burnt, at least partially, his relationship with Christian and Nick, and doesn’t seem to have any interest in working with Gabby. In the preview trailer, he states that he’ll be burning bridges, while he gestures weighing two opposing sides. But I don’t think he’s in much of a deciding swing position. Like Angelina, I think that Mike is on borrowed time.
Carl vs. Gabby
The Davids managed to work cohesively for a prolonged time, despite looking distant going into the merge. However, it seems like the five won’t be sticking together from this episode on. To me, it feels about the right time to start cannibalising each other, especially since they managed to even out the numbers with the fragmented Goliath tribe. It just seems like a safe enough risk to take at this point, with the Goliaths unlikely to stick it with each other in the long-run.
More specifically, onto the Carl versus Gabby showdown, I feel like the obvious line drawn would be that Davie sides with Carl, and Christian with Gabby. Which leaves Nick again with options to choose either side. I can see him ending up as the swing vote in the next tribal, but ultimately sticking with Christian. Because of the pretty positive and forgiving portrayal of Gabby over the season, as opposed to our relatively imperceptible look at Carl’s gameplay, Gabby would probably best Carl in this contest.
I think we’re finally going to see Alison working with Gabby. This alliance has been signalled since their time on Tiva before the merge, up until their conversation in the shelter last week. With the Davids splitting up, I think it’ll be an opportune and perhaps also necessary move.
I also think Christian will have to play his idol, seeing that all five remaining Davids, who may or may not be working with him anymore, know that he has it. As he aptly put it in the last episode, he’ll always be a target from here forth.