As Davie said at the last tribal council, “Good old David versus Goliath.” From the merge, I had high hopes for the Strike Force alliance. However, going into the coming episode, I can’t see it working out well anymore. Undoubtedly, seeds of mistrust have been sown in at least Nick and Christian, questioning Mike’s loyalty to the alliance. And seeing how the last vote went down, I don’t believe Mike will be able to recover completely from his attempted blindside. Perhaps he’ll work with the Davids again, but I don’t think he’ll be a priority to them anymore. As for Alison, although she fell into a similar position, I think that she’ll be able to recover better because of her relationship with Gabby – we see them discussing a plan in the shelter in the preview trailer (but more of that later).
Overall, an immediate prediction would be that the remaining Davids will stick together – a nice turn, in my opinion, after hearing mantras of “Goliath-strong” more strongly since the pre-merge. We see the five Davids on the beach, and Nick revealing a secret advantage. Is he referring to the idol nullifier, the vote steal, or both? Using both advantages together would help decrease the risk of misusing them individually, so I feel like the Davids would consider that strategy. I think a clear target would be Dan, whom some of them saw as a threat from the previous episode, or Mike for turning on the Strike Force alliance.
However, I’m also having slight difficulty seeing the Davids making another big move so immediately, especially knowing that two new idols may be reintroduced to the game. I think the Davids’ decision hinges upon the knowledge of the reintroduced idols, as well as the result of the immunity challenge.
Another key portion of the trailer reveals Kara cutting herself loose from her supposed showmance-like relationship with Dan. While I’ve been hoping for her to break away from him ever since they coupled up, it doesn’t seem that wise to do so now when the fractured Goliath alliance is gradually going down in numbers. Dan has a secret idol and is utterly by her side; it wouldn’t be the worst decision to stick it out with him for a while longer.
Which brings us to the sub-alliance of Kara, Alison, and Alec. I’m predicting that Kara spills that Dan has another idol in the heat of the moment, with the hopes of countering the rising challenge threat that he is. Seeing how Alec and Alison have been working as double agents with some of the Davids, I can see the three of them blindsiding their Goliath tribe in this episode.
The preview also showed Alison talking to Gabby in the shelter, with Gabby then imploring “Come to the Davids! Come to the good side!” in her confessional after. This leads me to think that these three Goliaths do abandon the plummeting Goliath alliance once and for all in the next episode. At the same time, with more numbers on their side, the Davids wouldn’t have to spend their advantages in the next vote, which would only, on paper, give them a 5-5 result.
To end off, I think it’s clear that those who are willing to be fluid rather than rigidly stick to one alliance will come out on top in the game of Survivor. This for me cements Angelina in a sinking ship just waiting out her time. On the other hand, I think that Nick, Davie, and to a lesser extent Gabby and Alison have poised themselves with options to carry them forward.
Will an advantage be played? I’m leaning towards no for a clean premeditated plan, but yes if new idols are found. Will Dan get blindsided? The preview suggests he’ll be a target, which makes me think it’ll be too obvious to viewers. I have an uneasy feeling that either Mike will go as a relatively safe elimination of a disloyal ex-alliance member, or actually Kara for trying to make a move.
Feel free to share your thoughts on the coming episode in the comments!